Government view

Are we attractive

7thof 68

7th of 68 on investment attractiveness. Policy is 2nd of 68. Geology is 14th of 41.

What came in

US$43.8mexploration, 2024

US$43.8m of exploration in 2024, most of it copper and nickel. US$900m committed to one copper expansion, company-reported.

What we can do

23points to close

Close the 23-point gap between policy and geology. Five levers, each with an owner.

Company figures are labelled. Where a number is not yet sourced it says so. Nothing on this page is estimated by us. Sources verified 9 Sep 2026

Prices this month · World Bank

Copper US$14,326/t 5.8% m/m

Gold US$4,411/troy oz 8.3% m/m

Nickel US$16,751/t 0.6% m/m

Coal (South African) US$96.8/t 0.5% m/m

1 · How attractive are we

Fraser Institute survey of mining companies. Independent, annual, not graded by us.

The score this programme is judged on.

60708090100

Investment attractiveness

20th of 82 to 7th of 68

73.74

85.99 up

Policy perception

14th of 82 to 2nd of 68

84.35

99.81 up

Best practices mineral potential

24th of 58 to 14th of 41

66.67

76.79 up

2024 2025 The score this programme moves

The gap

23 points between policy and geology

Second on policy, fourteenth on mineral potential. Policy is maxed out. Geology is not.

What moves the score

Policy perception is near its ceiling. The mineral potential score is what moves next, and it rises when investors can see interpreted geology they can act on.

The survey base shrank from 82 to 68, so read the score, not the rank.

Fraser Institute survey, 2024 and 2025. Score out of 100.

2 · What came in, by mineral

Exploration spend, company commitments and production. Company figures are labelled.

Diamonds: no public price

Copper

US$14,326/t

+48.1% on the year

Exploration spend, 2024

US$23.5m of US$43.8m reported across three commodities

S&P Global data via CSIS. 2024 total covers the three reported commodities.

Committed by companies

US$900m Khoemacau expansion to 130kt a year by H1 2028

MMG, December 2025

company-reported

US$16m Sandfire FY26 exploration, +26% on the year

Sandfire FY26 guidance

company-reported

Production

~7% of GDP at full production. US$1.4bn a year from one mine.

MMG; AfDB Country Focus Report 2025

company-reported

Nickel

US$16,751/t

+12.1% on the year

Exploration spend, 2024

US$13.4m of US$43.8m reported across three commodities

S&P Global data via CSIS. 2024 total covers the three reported commodities.

No company capital commitment is sourced for nickel yet.

Diamonds

Exploration spend, 2024

US$6.9m of US$43.8m reported across three commodities

S&P Global data via CSIS. 2024 total covers the three reported commodities.

Production

15.0m carats Debswana, 2025. Down 39 percent in two years. Plan for 2026: 18m.

Mining Weekly and Mining.com on Debswana; Botswana 2026/27 Budget Speech

No public price series for rough diamonds. Lab-grown prices are down about 90 percent since 2019.

Mineral exploration spend by commodity, US$m

2006 US$113.3m

Diamonds 76.5

Other commodities 36.8

Diamonds: 67.5 percent of spend.

2024 US$43.8m

Copper 23.5

Nickel 13.4

Diamonds 6.9

Diamonds: 13.9 percent. Copper and nickel take the rest.

Source: S&P Global data via CSIS. 2024 total covers the three reported commodities.

▸ Target: P150m non-diamond exploration by 2029.

Debswana production, million carats

24.7

2023

17.9

2024

15.0

2025

18.0

2026 plan

Down 39 percent in two years.

Source: Mining Weekly and Mining.com on Debswana; Botswana 2026/27 Budget Speech

P12.2bn

Mineral revenue, 2026/27

Flat, and well below long-term averages.

Botswana 2026/27 Budget Speech, Ministry of Finance

P26bn

Budget deficit

Around 8 percent of GDP.

Botswana 2026/27 Budget Speech

3 · Where we stand against others

Four countries that opened their geoscience. What each spent and what it got.

Australia

Exploring for the Future

products

Spent

AU$225m plus AU$566m successor

Got

AU$76bn added value in a year. 825 new tenements, 110 companies.

Canada

Targeted Geoscience Initiative 5

papers

Spent

C$52.1m

Got

508 research outputs. No measured investment effect.

Zambia

National airborne survey

too early

Spent

Copperbelt portion funded by First Quantum

Got

2.7m line-km, done July 2026. Too early to measure.

DRC

Xcalibur national databank

sovereign leverage

Spent

US$180m from January 2026

Got

700,000 km², tiered access. Aim: a stronger state negotiating hand.

The lesson. Data alone does not attract capital. Decision-ready products do.

Sources: Geoscience Australia and Deloitte Access Economics; Natural Resources Canada TGI-5 evaluation; Zambia national airborne survey; Business Day on the DRC databank, September 2026.

4 · What we can do to improve it

Each lever has an owner, the evidence behind it, and what the platform delivers for it. Owners are institutions.

Turn the archive into products investors can act on

in build

Not access. The data is fragmented and uninterpreted. No national model exists. Data alone does not attract capital. Decision-ready products do.

Evidence: Australia added AU$76bn of value in a year by shipping products, not papers. BGI Geoscience Data Catalogue 2022: no national prospectivity model exists.
What the platform delivers: A national prospectivity layer with confidence bounds, and download packages a junior can act on this week. Custodian: Botswana Geoscience Institute.

Owner EICB, with BGI as custodian Open

Decide who sees how much

undecided

Undecided by EICB. It changes the architecture and four of five journeys. Kickoff agenda.

Open. Most uptake, least leverage. Australia: 825 new tenements.

Tiered. Public screening layer, detail behind NDA. Current assumption. DRC chose tiered for negotiating leverage. current assumption

State-held. Most leverage, least interest. Hard to square with the mandate. No comparable programme chose this.

Evidence: Australia opened everything and got 825 new tenements. DRC chose tiered access for negotiating leverage.
What the platform delivers: The platform is built for tiered access today: a public screening layer, detail behind NDA. It can switch once the board decides.

Owner EICB board Open

Put a clock on licence approvals

policy decision

Targeting got faster. Approvals did not. No licence type has a statutory clock.

Evidence: Licence approvals have no statutory clock. The Chamber of Mines credits the cadastre for the base-metals surge; targeting got faster, approvals did not.
What the platform delivers: Not the platform's to fix. Tenure is the Department of Mines register. Approval timing is not predicted here.

Owner Ministry of Minerals and Energy, Department of Mines

Sign off every target with a competent person

in build

Bankable exploration prospects: Defensible under due diligence. Capital discounts a claim nobody has put their name to.

Evidence: EICB Terms of Reference. Ranking standard: a Recognised Overseas Professional Organisation.
What the platform delivers: Competent-person sign-off on every target. Against SAMREC, JORC and NI 43-101. A rejected target changes the model.

Owner EICB, with the local geoscience partner Open

Publish how the model was checked

in build

Credibility with capital that discounts AI claims. An investor reads the method before any map.

Evidence: EICB Terms of Reference, AI-enabled analysis. Investor journey: the methodology page is the moment of truth.
What the platform delivers: Published validation. Uncertainty shipped. BGI can re-run the model on the same open data.

Owner EICB, with BGI able to re-run Open

fixed here The subsurface is invisible. not ours Licence approvals have no statutory clock.

5 · Brief for cabinet

A number from here, used in a speech, that nobody can contradict.

The executive briefing is the printable version: every chart on this page, the sources behind them, and the live news feed.

16 of 31 layers live 3 twin sites Last update 15 Sept 2026 Prices 2026-08, World Bank Prospects Group

Open the cabinet brief Digital twin

How attractive are we to mineral investment, and what can we do about it