KANZI
EA
Executive briefing · Botswana

What is replacing diamonds, and when

Cabinet-ready view from live data and sourced evidence. Every number carries its source.

Evidence verified 9 Sep 2026 · platform snapshot live
Headline KPI · Fraser mineral-potential score
The score this programme is judged on.
Independent · annual · not graded by us
65758595100
Investment attractiveness
73.74
85.99
Policy perception
84.35
99.81
Best practices mineral potential
66.67
76.79
2024 2025 The score this programme moves
The gap
23 points between policy and potential

Second on policy, fourteenth on mineral potential. Policy is maxed out. Geology is not.

The survey base shrank from 82 to 68, so read the score, not the rank.

Fraser Institute survey, 2024 and 2025. Score out of 100.

Debswana production, million carats
Down 39 percent in two years.
24.7
2023
17.9
2024
15.0
2025
18.0
2026 plan
Source: Mining Weekly and Mining.com on Debswana; Botswana 2026/27 Budget Speech
Mineral exploration spend by commodity, US$m
Same scale. Base metals took over; the total halved.
2006US$113.3m total
Diamonds 76.5
Other commodities 36.8
Diamonds: 67.5 percent of spend.
2024US$43.8m total
Copper 23.5
Nickel 13.4
Diamonds 6.9
Diamonds: 13.9 percent. Copper and nickel take the rest.
▸ Target: P150m non-diamond exploration by 2029.
Source: S&P Global data via CSIS. 2024 total covers the three reported commodities.
~90%
Lab-grown price fall since 2019
Lab-grown output: 25 million carats in 2025, under 1 million in 2015.
Mining.com; IMF 2025 Article IV
BBB-
S&P sovereign rating
Negative outlook. Debt past 40 percent of GDP by 2027.
S&P Global; IMF 2025 Article IV
P12.2bn
Mineral revenue, 2026/27
Flat, and well below long-term averages.
Botswana 2026/27 Budget Speech, Ministry of Finance
P26bn
Budget deficit
Around 8 percent of GDP.
Botswana 2026/27 Budget Speech
130kt
Khoemacau output, H1 2028
From 60,000 t/yr, on a US$900m expansion.
company-reported
MMG, December 2025
~7%
Of GDP at full production
US$1.4bn a year from one mine.
company-reported
MMG; AfDB Country Focus Report 2025
+26%
Sandfire FY26 exploration
Up to US$16m. The belt is still being hunted.
company-reported
Sandfire FY26 guidance
What the platform holds today
Live counts from the pipeline and the ranked targets.
Public layers live
24/ 90
Digital twin →
Features under lineage
148,255
Catalogue →
Targets signed
7/ 10
Ranked targets →
Data-room views
47
Enquiries →
Live news
196
rss
What the model has to work with
Labels bind, not algorithms. These bounds are shipped with every score.
10.94%
Geochemical coverage
61,996 of 575,200 km² sampled.
~70%
Covered by Kalahari sand
10 to 150 m; over 400 m in the Okavango.
~80%
Of basement is concealed
Inferred, not mapped.
Does not exist at national scale
No national radiometricsNo national geochemistryNo magnetotelluricsNo national AEMNo mineral-occurrence database

Aeromagnetics are the exception: world class, 250 m lines, national datum.

Source: EICB Terms of Reference; BGI Geoscience Data Catalogue 2022 Rev 1
The data exists. Nobody has assembled it.
Fragmented across custodians, formats and decades. The barrier is interpretation, not access.
11,236
Historical analogue reports
Digitised, in a library, not a model.
52,827
Borehole records
Mostly water. Best depth-to-bedrock set in the country.
70+
Airborne survey datasets
Merged in 2012. Never re-interpreted nationally.
1950s–
Pre-independence exploration
Paper, microfiche, tape, floppy disk.
Private
Company exploration reports
Held by companies. Rarely returned.
0
National prospectivity models
None peer-reviewed at country scale.
Source: EICB Terms of Reference; BGI Geoscience Data Catalogue 2022 Rev 1
Opening geodata works, but only when it ships products
Data alone does not attract capital. Decision-ready products do.
ProgrammeSpendResultOutcome
Australia
Exploring for the Future
AU$225m plus AU$566m successorAU$76bn added value in a year. 825 new tenements, 110 companies. products
Canada
Targeted Geoscience Initiative 5
C$52.1m508 research outputs. No measured investment effect. papers
Zambia
National airborne survey
Copperbelt portion funded by First Quantum2.7m line-km, done July 2026. Too early to measure. too early
DRC
Xcalibur national databank
US$180m from January 2026700,000 km², tiered access. Aim: a stronger state negotiating hand. sovereign leverage
Programme objectives and how KANZI answers them
ObjectiveWhat it means in practiceWhat KANZI delivers
Bankable exploration prospectsDefensible under due diligence.Competent-person sign-off on every target.
Unlock investmentLicence uptake inside a political cycle.Data rooms and packages a junior can act on this week.
Consolidate all custodian dataThe state can see its own subsurface.Catalogue and lineage, not just files.
AI-enabled analysisCredibility with capital that discounts AI claims.Published validation. Uncertainty shipped.
A partnership modelEquity in discoveries, not reports.A stronger negotiating position.
Access model
Undecided by EICB. It changes the architecture and four of five journeys. Kickoff agenda.
Open

Most uptake, least leverage.

Australia: 825 new tenements.

Tiered current assumption

Public screening layer, detail behind NDA. Current assumption.

DRC chose tiered for negotiating leverage.

State-held

Most leverage, least interest. Hard to square with the mandate.

No comparable programme chose this.

Two frictions, one fixed here
fixedThe subsurface is invisible.
not oursLicence approvals have no statutory clock.

Tenure is the Department of Mines register. Approval timing is not predicted here.

Vocabulary the programme uses
Search-space reduction
Share of the country a competent person can set aside for a commodity.
Capture efficiency
Share of known deposits inside the top-ranked area. 80 percent in 12 percent is capture efficiency, not a discovery claim.
Confidence bounds
Every score carries its data completeness. Sparse labels widen bounds, never raise scores.
One governed source of truth, consumed at five depths
The core object is a reproducible interpretation with lineage, not a map.
Public
No login
National prospectivity, coverage, method
Explorer: screen
Investor: first look
Registered
Free account
Polygon downloads, modelling-package exports
Explorer: acquire
Partner: certify
NDA
Scoped
Detailed target packages, investment data rooms
Investor: underwrite
State
EICB and Ministry
Full detail, negotiation support
Minister: govern
Custodian
BGI
Stewardship, attribution, re-run rights
BGI: steward
EICB Catalyse exploration investment, build bankable prospects, take equity.
BGI Custodian of geoscience information. Research and advisory.
MDCB Manages state mining assets. Recommended EICB after finding a quarter of the eastern flank fully mapped.
Where every number comes from
Links verified 9 September 2026. Full references on the companion pages.
Fiscal and macro
  • · Botswana 2026/27 and 2025/26 Budget Speeches, Ministry of Finance
  • · IMF 2025 Article IV Consultation, Botswana, December 2025
  • · AfDB Botswana Country Focus Report 2025
  • · Mining Weekly and Mining.com on Debswana and the De Beers sales agreement
Exploration and geoscience
  • · Fraser Institute Annual Survey of Mining Companies 2025, published February 2026
  • · BGI Geoscience Data Catalogue 2022 Rev 1, and the BGI data platforms
  • · EICB Terms of Reference, tender EICB 5/2/3/7/26
  • · S&P Global exploration data via CSIS
  • · Mineral Economics, 2025 bibliometric review of Botswana geoscience research
Institutions and comparators
  • · EICB and gov.bw ministry pages; BGI leadership announcement, July 2026
  • · International IDEA, Mineral Resource Governance in Botswana, February 2025
  • · Geoscience Australia Exploring for the Future; Deloitte Access Economics assessment
  • · Natural Resources Canada TGI-5 evaluation
  • · Business Day on the DRC national databank, September 2026

Conflicting sources are shown side by side. Company figures are labelled.

Live news
RSS backup Botswana · 196 articles · 2026-09-12 06:38